JUCS - Journal of Universal Computer Science 29(4): 374-396, doi: 10.3897/jucs.94514
Human Mobility Prediction with Region-based Flows and Road Traffic Data
expand article infoFernando Terroso-Saenz, Andres Muñoz§
‡ Universidad Católica de Murcia (UCAM), Murcia, Spain§ University of Cadiz, Cadiz, Spain
Open Access
Abstract
Predicting human mobility is a key element in the development of intelligent transport systems. Current digital technologies enable capturing a wealth of data on mobility flows between geographic areas, which are then used to train machine learning models to predict these flows. However, most works have only considered a single data source for building these models or different sources but covering the same spatial area. In this paper we propose to augment a macro open-data mobility study based on cellular phones with data from a road traffic sensor located within a specific motorway of one of the mobility areas in the study. The results show that models trained with the fusion of both types of data, especially long short-term memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural networks, provide a more reliable prediction than models based only on the open data source. These results show that it is possible to predict the traffic entering a particular city in the next 30 minutes with an absolute error less than 10%. Thus, this work is a further step towards improving the prediction of human mobility in interurban areas by fusing open data with data from IoT systems.
Keywords
Human mobility, Machine Learning, open data, road traffic, inductive loop sensor